Garnet Capital Advisors Blog

April 10, 2014

Rising consumer sentiment could precede most robust loan origination

Many participants in a recent industry survey expressed optimistic views of the housing market, and this strong sentiment could foreshadow more robust loan origination.

Housing market sentiment improves
In the latest Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, 52 percent of respondents said it's currently easy for people to get a mortgage. This figure was more than 10 percent higher than the 47 percent of participants who had this view at the same time last year.

In addition to this optimism toward credit availability, participants provided positive input on buying and selling. Of those who took part in the poll, 69 percent said that now is a good time to buy a house, while 38 percent said now is a good time to sell - higher than the 26 percent of respondents who held the same view last year.

Americans more optimistic about personal finances
Sentiment regarding these finances has been improving. In the Fannie Mae poll, a slim 12 percent predicted that their situation would worsen over the next year. This compared to the same time in 2013, when 21 percent had this view.

In addition to indicating optimistic predictions, the poll also revealed the improving fortunes of many Americans, according to Mortgage News Daily. Two-fifths, or 40 percent of respondents, indicated that their financial situation had improved in the last year. This figure represented an all-time high for the survey.

Fannie Mae official notes positive outlook
Amid the aforementioned conditions, Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, noted the various headwinds the housing market has encountered, and emphasized that many factors could help make it stronger going forward.

"The housing recovery continues to proceed in fits and starts. Rising mortgage rates and a lack of supply have dampened housing market momentum," he said. "However, we see several positive signs going into this year's spring home buying season, compared with last year. For example, consumers are less pessimistic about their personal finances, and more optimistic about the current selling environment and their ability to get a mortgage."

Consumers who aim to work with government-created organizations such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae have good reason to be optimistic about their prospects for getting a mortgage.

As economic conditions improve, loan originations could easily trend higher in the coming months. In the event that these originations include credit issued by private entities, the situation could help provide a boost to loan sales by increasing supply.