Small businesses needing loans are increasingly turning to nonbank lenders. Why? Because banks became more risk-adverse about small business loans after 2008. Banks should partner with nonbank originators to reap the rewards of the latter's increased small business lending.
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CECL is a new standard set forth by the FASB. It is set to be implemented in 2020 for all SEC registrants and 2021 for all other banks. The ABA terms it a "significant challenge for the banking industry" and notes that it has the potential to change the way banks do business. While many industry associations seek to delay or mitigate the implementation of CECL, the fact is, it is coming, and banks need to be prepared.
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Job creation in the U.S. slowed in November, but the unemployment rate is still the lowest seen in half a century. Despite this strength, though, several economic factors are more ominous, such as trade war uncertainty, slowing home sales, and slackening car sales.
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More investors are turning toward subprime loans to obtain better yields, for both bonds and whole loans. Currently, subprime loans backed by automobiles offer rates over 6% - about 100% more than the current yield on a 10-year Treasury - according to the Wall Street Journal.
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Recently, the yield curve on U.S. Treasuries (specifically between the 3 and 5 year) inverted for the first time in 11 years. An inverted yield curve is often viewed as a sign that a recession may be coming. While the U.S. Federal Reserve has indicated it will raise interest rates through 2019, the market has begun pricing in declining rates in 2020. Investors with a risk-on stance may want to contact a loan sale advisor such as Garnet Capital to add higher interest-rate assets to their portfolio.
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Banks and credit unions are worried about the potential impact of a required conversion to current and expected credit loss (CECL) accounting from the currently used incurred loss system. But it is not clear whether proposals to modify or delay CECL from the current conversion dates will be successful. Right now, banks will transition on January 1, 2020, and credit unions two years later.<
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Non-banks now write the majority of mortgages in the U.S., but the sustainability of their business model in an economic downturn is not proven - and may be questionable. In addition, traditional banks lend to non-banks, and are thus still exposed to any vulnerability they have.
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